Supply/Demand estimation
Here you can explore our current active projects and publications within supply/demand estimation.
Current Projects
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PATPath
Before a state, a health system, or an insurer can plan for psilocybin-assisted therapy, someone has to answer how many people would actually be eligible for it and how many would seek it out. PATPath is a tool for producing those estimates rather than a single national number, so that planners can work from the population and assumptions relevant to them.
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Demand for MDMA-assisted therapy
CEP is estimating how many people in the United States would be clinically eligible for MDMA-assisted therapy and how many would be likely to pursue it. It applies the approach behind our published psilocybin eligibility estimate to a different condition and a different treatment pathway. Estimates of this kind set the ceiling on every budget-impact, workforce, and capacity question that follows, which is why they come first.
Publications
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Scaling Psychedelic Therapies in the Health System
Truax B, Marseille E, Muir O, Glastra J. Scaling Psychedelic Therapies in the Health System. Norman S, McQuillan B, Horner S, eds. BrainFutures and the UC Berkeley Collaborative for the Economics of Psychedelics; March 2025.
Lays out what health systems would need in order to deliver psychedelic therapies at scale: workforce, facilities, reimbursement pathways, and the operational steps that sit between regulatory approval and routine clinical care.
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An estimate of the number of people with clinical depression eligible for psilocybin-assisted therapy in the United States
Rab SF, et al. An estimate of the number of people with clinical depression eligible for psilocybin-assisted therapy in the United States. Psychedelics. 2024.
Estimates that 56 to 62 percent of Americans currently being treated for depression — roughly 5.1 to 5.6 million people — would meet the eligibility criteria used in psilocybin clinical trials. Nearly a third of that figure comes from including patients with co-occurring alcohol and substance use disorders, who are excluded from many trials but may benefit.